McCormick Ranch Sales Updates: January 2022

Happy New Year! I hope you are having a wonderful start to 2022 and have many great things in store.

Whenever we start a new year, we can look back and see what happened. In early 2021, my predictions were that the market would continue to go up. We only had around 25-30 homes available for sale in early 2021 and demand was beginning to creep up.

Well, at the start of 2022 we only have 14 homes available. 14(!). This includes single family, town homes, and condos. I doubt there was ever a time that inventory was this low in the history of McCormick Ranch. Homeowners are staying put and anything that is listed is sold almost immediately.

Year over year, single family homes are up around 27%. Our two year average is around 23 or 24%. This is mind boggling. With what is currently listed, selling, and going under contract, it looks like January 2022 will keep this trend moving higher.

Condos are up around 20% per year over the prior two years and townhomes/patio homes are close to this range, as well. There is a lot of overlap in these two styles so they are averaging out relatively close.

As expected, price per square foot has risen in a similar manner.

When looking at monthly sales over the prior 5 years, there is a definite bump that occurs every spring. This is our busy season and we usually see 50-70 homes sell each month from February through May. I do expect more homes to be listed so we should continue to see this.

So, where do we go from here? I think the next 6 months (at least!) will be similar to the past few years. There is so much demand that this doesn't yet seem to want to falter.

However, interest rates are starting to rise. Certain types of loans such as second home and high balance loans are also becoming substantially more expensive. This has the chance to lessen demand. If regular owner occupied rates end up at 4.5-5% or more, we could see home prices finally flatten.

Only time will tell!

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Yours in McCormick Ranch Real Estate,

Randy Arriola