McCormick Ranch sales update: December 2021

As we round out the year, all we can do is look back and think about how this was one for the history books. 2020 was a year of uncertainty, 2021 was a year of competition amongst buyers. Almost everyone was caught off guard by the sheer demand that buyers had even starting in January. It hasn't slowed down, yet. Let's take a closer look:

Over the last 12 months, the average sales price for a single family home has increased approximately 24% from $808,000 to $1,003,000. Yes, the average home in McCormick Ranch is now over one million dollars. A million used to be a fully remodeled lake front home just a few years ago. Now, the average home will sell for this (and in an average of 29 quick days!). This is simply incredible.

Condos, townhomes, and patio homes are also all up by a very strong market. Condos are up 26% and townhomes/patios are closer to the 28% mark. All property owners are still very pretty, whether you have owned your home for 6 months or 36 years.

It shouldn't come as a surprise that price per square foot has also continued to increase at a break neck pace. Condos and single family have continually increased pretty much every single month. Patio homes and townhomes had a lull at the end of 2020 but have risen steadily since then.

The number of sales has remained relatively consistent year over year. We see a peak in the spring and somewhat lower numbers in the fall.

The biggest question at this point is always going to be, "What's next?" I think 2022 will see an extremely busy spring with big gains once again.

Let's dive into the chart above. These are two of the largest indicators of what is going to happy in the future, in my opinion. First is the yellow line which are the number of active homes. Back in 2017 through 2019, we often had 100-130 homes available at any given time throughout McCormick Ranch. This let buyers choose from many options and not have to instantly rush into a home. At the start of the month, there were just 16. 16 homes between single family, condos, townhomes, and patio homes. That is not a lot to choose from. This tends to be the slower time of the year to list but this is pretty incredible and is the lowest amount I've ever seen.

As we track the months of inventory, it similarly has tracked on the historically low side. We calculate the months of inventory by dividing the number of sales in the prior month by the number of homes available. Due to the low inventory and strong number of sales, we have had less than 1 month of inventory for the majority of the year. And, it has stayed low for the last few months. With so little supply and still lots of demand, I am expecting another crazy spring.

Have a happy Holiday season!

Yours in McCormick Ranch real estate,

Randy Arriola