McCormick Ranch Sales Update: August 2023

As we move through the summer, we have seen lots of growth and demand build up. The year started slowly. Then, just like the temperatures reaching record highs, home prices rose and inventory has fallen.

We see this happen most years. Historically, January is still relatively quiet. We are recovering from the holidays. February starts to see an uptick in interest. March through June have a lot of momentum and is our prime moving season. Then, the summer starts to slow. We have seen a lot of demand still in June and July, though, even with rates ticking up once again.

Looking at the details, we can see the large increase in pricing over 2022. 2023 appears to be down, but this chart is based off of a 6 month rolling average. This helps flatten out some of the extreme peaks and valleys from month to month as our market is relatively small. We will likely see both sales price and price per square foot rise over the next few months. We are currently down around 5-7% from the peak highs but the last 3 or 4 months have seen fireworks again. Thus, I expect we will be approaching the highs very shortly.

When looking at days on market we can see that the 2023 peak hit in the early Spring. It has leveled out and some are beginning to decrease once again.

The number of monthly sales is showing a relatively busy spring, as well. The pure numbers were lower than prior springs due to the rate situation. We have hit a bit of a stalemate where sellers are staying put due to high rates. Those who purchased or refinanced in 2020 or 2021 has such low rates compared to what is offered now. They are selling less and typically only moving due to necessity. But, buyers are still willing and ready.

So what happens from here? I think we will continue to see some increases over the next few months. Anything that is priced accordingly will sell quickly. We will likely see the usual holiday slowdown come December but there is a lot that can happen between now and then. Will rates stay where they are or will they increase or decrease? Are we going to have any economic shocks? Or, will Phoenix and Scottsdale turn into a giant fireball and we hit 127 degrees? Time will tell!

Yours in McCormick Ranch Real Estate,

Randy