McCormick Ranch Sales Update: April 2024

The spring tends to be busiest part of the year throughout Phoenix, Scottsdale, and McCormick Ranch. February through June usually see a frenzy of buyer activity, limited amounts of listings, and the overall number of homes for sale decrease. In a normal year, prices will increase each month before leveling off for the remainder of the year.

While it is still early in the year, we are seeing signs that 2024 may buck the trend as inventory numbers are increasing. In fact, this is the first year since 2019 (excluding 2020 due to Covid) that the number of listings in McCormick Ranch have any meaningful increase between January and April. We saw a 44% increase in the number of listings. That being said, inventory is still relatively low compared to prior years. We had 81 listings to begin the month. April of 2019 had 128.

What's causing inventory to remain high? Lackluster buyer demand simply due to rates. Between 2016 and 2023 we average 138 sales in the first quarter of the year. Q1 2024 saw just 85 sales. The supply is there right now but buyers are sitting on the fence unless the home is perfect (or priced to allow for upgrades). If we see rates drop this could cause a huge influx of buyers.

Prices have been pretty stable over the past few months. We've seen some dips and some increases but the past year has ended up being relatively flat. This suggests that the homes that are selling are those that are in prime condition. Buyers are not afraid to pay for quality renovations. If a home is in original condition it has to be priced accordingly (and there is a large sliding scale, of course). Both single family and condos are sitting right near their all time highs. If we merge patio homes and townhomes due to their overlap they would also be sitting near their highs.

We see a slightly different trend with price per square foot. Single family and condos are both trending upward. This is another sign for single family that buyers are willing to pay top dollar for quality homes. Condos are rising likely due to the affordability and cost to still live in central Scottsdale and McCormick Ranch.

As we move through the remainder of the spring, I still feel as if we will be rate driven. The Fed is still being extra cautious. We hear conflicting reports from members of the Fed on almost a weekly basis. One committee member is ready to reduce while others want to keep rates the same. Some metrics come out showing inflation is soft while others show it still has the potential to stay high. Time will tell!

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Yours in McCormick Ranch Real Estate,

Randy Arriola