October sales update for McCormick Ranch

As we finish the 3rd quarter, the McCormick Ranch real estate market has turned into the seasonal slowdown.

For this year, though, slowdown likely isn't the right word.

Let's talk about what "slow" looks like right now:

1. The number of sales dropped from 55 in July to 39 in August to 36 in September. But this is still higher than the 32 in September 2018.

2. The average days on market for single family homes bumped up 3 days to 84 days. This is still very low!

3. The absorption rate (how quickly the current inventory of homes would sell if nothing new came on the market) went from 1.61 to 1.80 months. It was 2.56 in September 2018. Anything under 4 is considered to be a seller's market and you can see that we are substantially lower.

Inventory still remains incredibly low with just 65 available homes at the beginning of the month, and that is one of the major catalysts to low days on market and a low absorption rate. We usually see the number of sales drop from August through December and this is nothing to be alarmed of.

Prices have also remained very flat over the past few months. This also follows the annual trend where the majority of price increases in Phoenix area housing happen over the first 6 months of the year. So while it may look like things could be stopping their long term run-up, I still do not feel this is the case.

We should expect to have a few more fairly quiet months through the end of the year. After that, all bets are off once the true buying season commences. If inventory remains low (and buying is still spurred by low interest rates), I'd expect to see some fireworks and some substantial price increases once again.

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