Just getting into the meat of it all, McCormick Ranch sales (and essentially all of the Phoenix metro area) are remaining incredibly strong. Single family home prices are up an amazing 15% for the prior twelve months. Condo prices are up around 13.5%. Patio homes are up a smaller 5.0% and townhomes an incredible 18% (although there is a lot of crossover for these last two).
We are still seeing the benefits of very low interest rates, low supply, and unusually high demand for this time of the year.
As expected, price per square foot is up in a similar regard. All have gone up between 12 and 20% over the prior 12 months.
Late summer and early Fall is usually the time of the year that we begin to see the number of sales flatten out. This trend especially continues throughout the December, when the Holidays become front and center. With this year being anything but normal, the number of sales is sticking to the annual highs.
It should come as no surprise that Days on Market is remaining low as well. When houses sell over a weekend DOM cannot stay high.
Looking forward, I fully expect to see more of the same over the next few months. With the economic uncertainty interest rates *should* stay low. Phoenix and Scottsdale are still welcoming a large amount of new residents. Many of these are coming from high cost of living areas and our home expenses seem very low compared to theirs.
We have 49 homes active and available to sell at the start of this month. With 52 homes sold (and 54 now under contract) that shows we have under 1 month on inventory.
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Yours in real estate,
Randy Arriola
As we have moved through the summer, the hot temperatures have not slowed down the McCormick Ranch real estate market. Homes continued to sell extremely quickly and in range of the highest nominal prices ever seen.
Single family home and condo sales prices are up 12.7% year over year. Patio homes have remained flat while townhomes are up a remarkable 19.5%. However, I wouldn't put too much faith in the townhome and patio home numbers as there is a lot of cross over in how they are listed. The truth for both is likely in line with the 10-12% mark.
Price per square foot has followed a very similar path. Single family home and condos are up around 11% year over year. Townhomes are up around 18% and patio homes are up a smaller 3.6%.
The monthly sales chart is really showing a couple of different time frames. We can see the fourth quarter taper off from 2019. This lasted through January 2020 when the spring season really kicked off. February and even March were solid and then the bottom fell out due to Covid. Finally, beginning in June sales and interested rocketed forward.
Lastly, we can see that Days on Market is still at extreme lows. There were 57 home sales in McCormick Ranch in August. As of September 1st, we had just 49 active and available homes listed for sale. This means our absorption rate is .86 months. All of the active homes will theoretically be sold within 26 days meaning this is still an extreme sellers market.
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Yours in McCormick Ranch real estate,
Randy Arriola
With the unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic, the local real estate market has been a whirlwind over the prior 4 months.
2020 started with an incredibly busy February and early March. Then the pandemic hit in full swing in late March and real estate activity just stopped. Sellers did not want potential buyers in their home or to even think about moving. And buyers did not want to enter other homes in fears of spreading the virus.
April remained quiet as well but then something clicked over in May. Perhaps we all got more comfortable with what was coming and what we are still dealing with. Interest rates also plummeted further allowing funds to have more buying power. And, the stock market started its rebound.
In June and July the market got back to full swing. Much like the stock market today, our real estate market is almost saying, "What Pandemic?" Sellers are still not wanting to move but buyers are out in full force scrambling over what is available. Once again, low rates are also part of the catalyst since buying power up.
If we look a little closer we can see how prices are rising. Single family homes have hit their highest 6 month rolling price ever hitting $785,665.
This is also buoyed by home sales over $1,000,000. In the last 60 days we have seen 11 sales over this price point. People are not afraid to pay for well renovated and thought out homes!
It shouldn't be much of a surprise to see that the gains have also extended to the price per square foot. As I've mentioned before, using price per square foot is an awful way to price your individual home but is a good way to see what is happening to the market as a whole.
Single family, condos, and townhomes have all hit highs in price per square foot. Patio homes have been softer but still gaining.
Lastly, days on market has been dropping like a rock thrown off the side of the Grand Canyon. Due to the lack of inventory, homes of all price ranges are being snatched up in days and not months or even weeks. Our current supply of inventory is at just .7 months. So every home currently listed would theoretically sell within 3 weeks. This means we are in a full on seller's market.
As we look forward, it is hard to see this trend stopping any time soon. Maricopa county is the fastest growing county in the country with more than 200 people moving here every day. We are still having transplants from California, the Midwest, and back East. When you sell a multi million dollar home in California, our larger Ranch style homes seem like an absolute steal. I also do not expect rates to rise substantially over the next 6-12 months.
However, if anything, we have also learned that the market can flip on a dime either direction at almost any time. It is hard to predict what may happen in the next 12 months and beyond.
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Yours in McCormick Ranch Real Estate,
Randy Arriola
